Global models cite weak La Niña/neutral Pacific, sees mostly normal monsoon for India this year

Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the circum-global narrow band of lower pressure tracking movement of sun that triggers monsoons, is now in the southern hemisphere overseeing onset of seasonal rains over Australia, delayed by at least a month.
North-east monsoon over southern India itself had extended its stay by as much, holding back ITCZ. In the next three to four months, it will begin tracking to the north back again, to precipitate south-west monsoon over Kerala by June later this year. India Meteorological Department (IMD) may release its first long-range forecast of 2025 monsoon in April.
Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre has put out a La Niña ‘watch,’ first and lowest of its the three-scale outlook with respect to weather pattern for equatorial Pacific. Prevailing conditions do not suggest its upgrade to next levels any time soon.
Instead, it is likely to end up a neutral (neither La Niña or El Niño) this year, presaging mostly normal south-west monsoon for India. The UK Met Centre as well as Application Laboratory of Japanese national forecaster Jamstec too appear to endorse this outlook for now, though it is still early days when predicability is lowest due to ‘spring barrier’ effect.
Spring barrier effect
Spring barrier refers to inability to predict churn in the equatorial Pacific during first half of the year and therefore comparably less skilful forecast of Northern Hemisphere spring. The Japanese agency said equatorial Pacific may turn into La Niña Modoki (Japanese for ’similar but different’). This goes to suggest La Niña may be less of canonical event than a compromised variant.
The Korean agency said La Niña watch has been in effect from March 2024 to November 2024, switching briefly to El Niño watch in December before reverting back to La Niña watch from January 2025. It sees the Pacific relapsing to ‘mostly neutral’ during February-March-April. This will turn predominantly neutral into March-April-May, April-May-June and May-June-July, coinciding with onset of pre-monsoon in India followed by south-west monsoon later in June.
Heating pattern
As spring sets in (February-March-April), it sees West Maharashtra including Mumbai and entire Madhya Pradesh recording highest day temperatures. Warming will be noticeable also in Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, North-East India, and parts of Vidarbha and Telangana. Warmer but less high temperatures are indicated for rest of Central India (Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Odisha); entire North-West India and East India, and northern parts of Peninsular India (Rayalaseema, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka); and Tamil Nadu, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka.
Projected rainfall trends
Precipitation during February-March-April is likely to be lower than normal for North India (Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chandigarh, Haryana and Delhi). It will be close to normal over West India, Central India and East India; slightly above normal for Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Tamil Nadu along with southern parts of South Asia.
The UK Met Office predicts slightly above-normal rain for the country except South Peninsula (parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu) where it is likely to be normal. There is 60-80 per cent chance for above-normal temperatures for Gujarat and North-West India in February-March-April and a higher at 80-100 per cent for the southern parts of the country, signalling a gruelling transition into summer. May-June-July may see close to normal temperatures over most of the country.