Trump’s tariff tantrums lift US crude oil imports to India in 2025

Ever since Donald Trump returned to US President’s office in January 2025, there has been a visible uptick in Indian refiners’ engagement with US suppliers. India’s annual cargoes from the US are likely to hit second-highest on record in the current calendar year (CY).

Global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler points out that the key structural driver in inflated US cargoes has been “geopolitical.”

According to Kpler data, cargoes from the US have averaged at around 2,93,000 b/d in 2025 (CY) so far, which is the third highest on record after the Covid-impacted 2021 (around 4,12,000 b/d) and 2022 (around 3,00,000 b/d). With four months remaining in 2025, the number is likely to rise.

The data also show that US crude oil cargoes to India so far in August 2025 are expected at roughly 4,00,000 barrels per day (b/d) provisionally. If India does import this much quantity, it will be the second highest on record. However, Kpler expects this number may come down.

Comparing the market share of the US in India’s monthly crude oil imports also points to an uptick in barrels. For instance, in 2025 (CY), the market share of the US, which stood at 6.92 per cent in April, fell to 5.49 per cent a month later. However, the North American country’s share rose again to 6.41 per cent and a record 7.72 per cent (barring 2021) in June and July, respectively.

In contrast, Russia’s share in India’s crude imports in 2025 fell to 38.72 per cent in May, from 40.23 per cent a month ago. It clawed back some share to hit a healthy 44.54 per cent in June, but fell to 33.92 last month.

According to the US EIA, India surpassed China as Russia’s largest crude oil importer between 2023 and 2024. It represented 34 per cent of erstwhile Soviet Union’s crude oil exports in 2024, up from 30 per cent in 2023.

American barrels

Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline “US crude shipments to India have increased in 2025, with a notable acceleration in H2. However, August volumes appear inflated at first glance, as the month is only halfway through—based on current tracking, we estimate total arrivals will settle around 3,00,00 b/d, broadly in line with July levels.”

This recent strength is part of a broader trend that began picking up in late 2024 and gained momentum through 2025, supported by favourable price differentials and increased spot/term activity, he pointed out.

The appeal of US grades—particularly light sweet barrels—has also increased as Indian refiners seek to diversify away from the traditional Middle Eastern suppliers amid a shifting price environment.

“That said, while the rally in US flows to India has been strong, we believe the current pace may not accelerate further. Max to Max I see refiners might increase 1,00,000-2,00,000 b/d more, given that US grades are very light in nature. We expect US flows to stabilise around current levels in the near term, unless fresh geopolitical developments or price dislocations open the door for further gains,” he explained.

Russian cargoes

Another notable development this month is the higher crude oil imports from Russia. Kpler data show that Russian imports in August 2025 so far are at around 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), compared to around 1.6 mb/d in July and 2.1 mb/d in June 2025.

Ritolia pointed out that Russian crude imports into India have so far remained resilient in August, even after the Trump administration’s tariff announcement in late July 2025.

“But the stability we’re seeing now is mostly a result of timing—August cargoes were locked in back in June and early July, well before any policy shifts. What’s showing up in the data today reflects decisions made weeks ago. Any real adjustment in flows—whether due to tariffs, payment issues or shipping friction—will only start becoming visible from late September through October arrivals,” he added.

Until there is a clear-cut policy change or sustained shift in trade economics, Russian flows remain part of India’s crude basket—and talk of replacement is premature, Ritolia argued.

Published on August 14, 2025