Trump tariff effect: US GDP expected to show sharp decline, analysts warn of possible recession

First-quarter US GDP figures to be released on Wednesday are expected to reveal a sharp slowdown — and possibly signal a recession — due to a spike in imports rushed in before president Donald Trump’s broad tariffs took effect.
Since returning to office on January 20, president Trump announced several rounds of tariffs and a universal 10% base tariff on all imports from top trading partners, along with a steep 125% tariff specifically on Chinese goods.
After April’s market turmoil, the Trump administration paused higher tariffs for 90 days to allow trade talks, but kept a 10% base rate for most nations and imposed new China-specific tariffs totalling 145%.
The tariff announcement triggered a market selloff, driving volatility to its highest levels since the Covid-19 pandemic and unsettling investors.
Analysts had predicted that the economy would grow by about 2% in 2025, but since Trump returned to office and introduced new tariffs, many have lowered their forecasts including Wall Street titans Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley.

Some even expect the economy to shrink in the first quarter. Even if it doesn’t shrink, growth is expected to slow down significantly—just 0.4% in the first quarter, compared to 2.4% in the last quarter of 2024, according to Briefing.com.