Monsoon set to intensify, fuelled by strong winds over Arabian Sea, Bay
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts heaviest rain over next three days to fall over Central India across Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh as also parts of West Coast as monsoon cruises into first week of July.
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The monsoon is set to power itself to a compellingly charismatic phase marked by strong winds over next few days, prompting India Meteorological Department (IMD) to advise total suspension of fishing operations along many parts of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and warning fishermen to avoid venturing out into these seas for at least the next six days.
Over land, this is expected to translate into extremely heavy rainfall (21 cm+ during a 24-hour period) at isolated places over East Madhya Pradesh Friday; Himachal Pradesh on Sunday; and the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra on Sunday and Monday as a stubborn and productive cyclonic circulations continue to whir over north-east Madhya Pradesh and plains of West Bengal.
Stubborn circulation
The circulation over north-east Madhya Pradesh is embedded into a very fertile monsoon trough that lies diagonally from Bikaner, Jaipur, Datia, Sidhi, Asansol and Kolkata before dipping into north-east Bay of Bengal. This alignment across the core monsoon region and the arching of one end into the Bay is enough to sustain the flow of oodles of rain-driving moisture into the farming heartland.
This apart, a secondary trough runs sea-to-sea from north-east Arabian Sea to north-west Bay from north Gujarat to cyclonic circulation over plains West Bengal across land from Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. This trough works overtime with the monsoon trough to drive up rainfall many times over as the monsoon cruises into the normally rainiest month of July.
On cruise in early July
The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over Central India; along the West Coast; East India; North-West India; the Lakshadweep Islands; and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next three days.This points to sweep of the monsoon across the peninsular seas as mentioned earlier, resulting in heavy to very heavy to extremely heavy rain over land.
Very heavy rainfall is predicted for over Madhya Pradesh during four days into the weekend and early next week; over Chhattisgarh for five days; Vidarbha for three days from Sunday; plains of West Bengal Saturday and Sunday; Jharkhand on Monday; over Jammu on Sunday; Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand for four days from Saturday; Punjab and Haryana on Sunday and Monday; West Uttar Pradesh onSunday; East Rajasthan for five in the weekend and two days next week.
Expansive sweep
Over South Peninsula, very heavy rainfall is likely over Coastal Karnataka for three days and over South Interior Karnataka on Friday. Along the West Coast, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely for the next seven days over Konkan and Goa and the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat. Heavy rainfall is likely over Saurashtra and Kutch for five days; and Marathawada for two days.
The 24 hours ending Friday morning saw heavy to very heavy over West Rajasthan; East Madhya Pradesh; east Gujarat; Saurashtra and Kutch; Konkan and Goa; and Chhattisgarh. It was heavy over Assam and Meghalaya; the North-Eastern States; hills of West Bengal and Sikkim; Odisha; Uttarakhand; Himachal Pradesh; West Madhya Pradesh; Madhya Maharashtra; and South Interior Karnataka. Overall rain for country as a whole until Thursday logged in at a humongous 12 per cent above normal.
Published on July 4, 2025
