South Asian Climate Outlook Forum corroborates IMD outlook of above-normal monsoon for India this year

A statement on seasonal climate outlook for South-West monsoon season (June-September) released in Pune on Tuesday suggest ‘above-normal rainfall is most likely for most parts of South Asia except Tamil Nadu; parts of Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Leh; and North-East in India.

SASCOF-31 seasonal climate statement corroborates India Meteorological Department’s outlook for above-normal monsoon this year.
| Photo Credit: SASCOF-31 seasonal climate outlook statement

Track extended forecasts

Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be of climatological probabilities (no major deviation from normal) over remaining areas of the region. The above-normal monsoon forecast extends to entire Pakistan and Nepal; southern parts of Afghanistan; and northern and eastern parts of Sri Lanka.

The SASCOF-31 seasonal climate outlook said, as rainfall and temperatures during season depicts strong intra-seasonal variability, it is advised to watch extended range forecasts along with updated seasonal forecasts for better decision-making. 

International experts

Last year, above normal rainfall was observed over most parts of South Asia and below normal along Himalayan foothills and north-eastern parts. The outlook was predicted above-normal and below-normal rainfall reasonably well. However, it failed to correctly indicate below-normal rainfall observed in some areas of southern parts of South Asia and along Himalayan foothills. 

The regional climate outlook for 2025 season was collaboratively developed by nine national meteorological and hydrological services of South Asia with support from international experts. The process involved expert assessment of prevailing global climate conditions, national level forecasts and forecasts from different climate forecasting agencies around the world. 

Tropical Pacific conditions

Currently neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) prevail over tropical Pacific Ocean. Based on global climate model forecasts, there is strong consensus it is likely to continue during monsoon. ENSO is one of the global-scale climate phenomena with robust inverse association with year-to-year variability of monsoon over South Asia. 

In addition to ENSO, other factors such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that mimics ENSO closer home, also influence monsoon. A positive (negative) IOD is in general associated with a stronger (weaker) than normal monsoon. At present, neutral IOD conditions prevail, and recent forecasts global models suggest neutral IOD conditions may sustain during monsoon. 

‘Spring barrier’ effect

The statement said it is however recognised that global climate model predictions prior to and during the spring season generally have noticeable uncertainty due to so’-called spring barrier’ in seasonal predictability. It is also recognised that other regional and global factors as well as intra-seasonal features of the region can also affect seasonal climate patterns. 

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Published on April 30, 2025