Stopping imports of Russian oil will be key to trade deal with US, says trade policy expert
Ajay Srivastava, Founder, Global Trade Research Initiative, delivering the 14th J.V. Somayajulu Memorial Lecture on ‘The Future of Global Trade in a Multipolar World (Trade- Tariffs- Tensions), in Chennai.
| Photo Credit:
BIJOY GHOSH
The US-India tariffs standoff may end only if either India stops buying Russian oil or the US Courts strike down the levy, Ajay Srivastava, Founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), said here on Thursday.
The discount levels in prices of Russian oil, which existed earlier for India, are not prevalent now and hence Indian purchase of Russian oil may soon come to an end, he anticipated. However, he added that with America being a net importer of crude oil, they cannot supply to the world. “They are going to create a massive energy crisis,” he said.
Srivastava was speaking at the 14th J V Somayajulu Memorial Lecture organised by The Andhra Chamber of Commerce in Chennai. The event was organised to honour the legacy of an economist and stockbroker J V Somayajulu, Past President of the Chamber.
With September set to be the first full month with 50 per cent tariffs on India’s exports, Srivastava expects the month’s exports to be down by a large margin. In sectors like garments, companies supplying to high-end retailers are managing the situation by some internal adjustments such as supplying to other markets, but these short-term measures will not last long, he predicts, calling it a blow for Indian exporters.
If the tariffs continue, globally trade will grow as the US buys from other countries, but it is a problem for India, he noted. “Domestic consumption is doing well in India, and we must focus on improving our production quality,” he added.
Srivastava shed light on the emerging trade blocs, recalibration of supply chains, and a few implications of shifting global alliances. He emphasised the need for proactive policy reform, greater trade facilitation, and strategic global engagement by Indian businesses.
S Narasimhan, Vice-President, Andhra Chamber of Commerce, welcomed the gathering and highlighted the importance of equipping Indian businesses with thought leadership on global economic trends.
Published on October 10, 2025
