Skymet sees normal monsoon this year; weak rains for hills in North, East
Leading private weather forecaster Skymet expects the country to have a normal monsoon during the upcoming season (June to September 2025) at 103 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), with an error margin of +/-5 per cent . The LPA is 868.6 mm for the four-month period, with the spread of ‘normal’ being quantified at 96-104 of the of LPA.
India Meteorological Department (IMD), the official national forecaster, is expected to come out soon with the keenly anticipated first update of the monsoon long-range forecast for the season.
In terms of geographical spread, Skymet expects sufficiently good rains over West and South India. Core monsoon rain-fed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall. Excess rainfall is likely all along the Western Ghats, more so over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Goa. The North-East region and hills of North India may receive less than normal rainfall.
La Nina fading out
Jatin Singh, Managing Director, said Skymet has merely reiterated its earlier estimates of a normal monsoon in update issued on Tuesday. Explaining, he said rain-friendly La Nina in the Equatorial East Pacific has turned weak, and brief too. Its vital signs have started fading now. Occurrence of alter-ego El Nino, which normally corrupts the monsoon, is ruled out.
Pacific will likely turn neutral (neither La Nina nor El Nino) during monsoon. Remnants of La Nina and neutral state together are expected to shield it from any egregious outcome. Preliminary forecast of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD), that mimics El Nino-La Nina closer home in the Indian Ocean, will work in tandem with the Pacific state for a better monsoon.
Historically, a neutral Pacific coupled with positive IOD has tended to produce a worthy monsoon, Singh added. The second half of the season this year is expected to be better than the primal phase. Skymet suspects the monsoon may have a quiet start on account of a quick transition from La Nina to neutral state, and gain enough pace half way through the season.
More Like This
Published on April 8, 2025
