Need to change the mindset that India’s data methodology is inferior: CEA Nageswaran
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran (file photo)
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PTI
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday called for the need to change the prevailing mindset of questioning the data methodology. He noted that concerns about data quality arise when the numbers show an upside.
“We are engaged in an exercise of estimation, and all estimation methodologies will have limitations, but we seem to be particularly fond of questioning our methods, and less so of others, somehow thinking that our methods are inferior to others. It also reflects our mindset, and that is something that we need to change,” he said while addressing a pre-release consultative workshop on base revision of CPI, GDP and IIP.
Nageswaran’s remarks have come at a time, when there has been lot of noise on economic growth rate reaching 8.2 per cent during July-September quarter. It was mainly because the IMF assigned a ‘C’ grade to the country’s national income data. This became a big political issue in the debate on Central Excise (Amendment) Bill during the just-concluded winter session of Parliament.
Nageswaran noted that there are not much murmurs when the GDP data disappoint on the downside. “When the Indian statistical authorities reported a twenty-five percent contraction, nobody got up to question the methodology, the reliability of the numbers, the single deflator being used. When the disappointment was met, there was no complaint about methodology,” he said. However, things change all kinds of questions raised.
“It is only when the GDP growth numbers surprise on the upside, we hear all these concerns being raised,” CEA said . He then took the example of the single deflator WPI being applied to services sector. Because of the last two years, wholesale inflation rate has been trending quite low, entering into even contraction territory. But “we didn’t hear WPI inflation rate understating services sector growth in 21-22 and 22-23, when WPI inflation was 13 per cent and 9.6 per cent in those two years. Which probably overstated the inflation or the deflator being applied to services sector growth and depressing the services sector growth in real terms. We didn’t hear any such complaint at that time that India is understating its growth rate in 21-22 and 22-23,” he said.
Earlier, addressing the participants at the workshop, Saurabh Garg, Secretary with the Statistics Ministry, said the ministry is not expecting GDP expectations to change significantly even after the release of the new data series in February. “Too early to say, on its impact on GDP numbers. In general, we don’t expect much changes from what our previous expectations are,” he said. The availability of real-time data such as Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN) filings will help states estimate growth more accurately under the revised GDP methodology, he said.
The Secretary further said the government now has the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) which will help in further improving data quality. He also informed that the government is working with states to develop satellite accounts in segments like culture, digital economy and tourism, in line with the upcoming System of National Accounts (SNA) 2025 revision.
MoSPI is also in process to launch a new Annual Survey of Service Sector Enterprises shortly with an aim at improving measurement of the sectors that accounts for over half of India’s output. It is also mulling to introduce an Index of Service Production in 2026. In addition, the government will also compile a comprehensive National Product Classification, covering both goods and services over the next six months.
Published on December 23, 2025
