N-E monsoon likely to remain weak, says Skymet
Between October 1 and November 9, the South Peninsula has received 18 per cent surplus rainfall compared to the long-period average
| Photo Credit:
JOTHI RAMALINGAM B
Private forecaster Skymet has come out with a subdued outlook for north-east monsoon that had begun on a positive note across the South Peninsula, bringing satisfactory rainfall so far during the season.
It pointed to an evolving weak La Niña phase over the Pacific Ocean which has tended to suppress north-east monsoon activity, often leading to below-normal rainfall.
Concern for farmers
Skymet fears if this subdued trend persists, rainfall deficiency could emerge as a concern for farmers in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, where the season is crucial for Rabi cropping, irrigation, and water storage. It may be recalled the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast an above-normal season this year.
Between October 1 and November 9, the South Peninsula has received 18 per cent surplus rainfall compared to the long-period average. Several regions have seen noteworthy excesses – Andhra Pradesh (+46 per cent); Telangana (+65 per cent);, and Lakshadweep (+35 per cent) .However, Tamil Nadu, has recorded only 2 per cent above-normal rainfall, indicating that conditions have remained close to average overall.
Current conditions
Skymet said at present a cyclonic circulation over the east-central Bay of Bengal is active, but not favuorable for rainfall enhancement over Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh. Instead, this system could disrupt the inflow of moist north-easterly winds, which are vital for rain across these coastal regions.
Movement away
The system is expected to move instead towards east Sri Lanka, while another feeble cyclonic circulation may develop over the south-east Arabian Sea, near the south Kerala coast. The interaction of these two systems could bring light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy spells over south Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka, and light to moderate showers across south Kerala., Skymet said in its projections.
Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana are likely to remain mostly dry, with limited rainfall activity over the next week. As a result, the overall rain surplus over the South Peninsula is expected to decline gradually.
Published on November 11, 2025
