N-E monsoon likely heading into another spectacular phase next week
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a western disturbance shearing away the the depression over Arabian Sea to spark rain for parts of North-West India even as a latent depression pauses off north Tamil Nadu-south coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts by Monday.
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The North-East monsoon is bracing for another spectacular phase with ongoing activity escalating next week, and oodles of moisture sloshing over South Peninsula and parts of West and Central India to trigger heavy rain.
Depression stationery
Wednesday’s rain-driving depression over south-east Arabia Sea sustained itself through Thursday, almost stationery at its location 530 km west-southwest of Aminidivi; 810 km west-southwest of Mangaluru; and 870 km south-west of Panjim. Interestingly, it is seen as gradually shifting tracks towards Konkan-Mumbai coast.
The other well-marked ‘low’ over south-west Bay of Bengal weakened into a conventional ‘low’ and crossed coast to nestle over south interior Karnataka and adjoining north Kerala. It may emerge over east-central and adjoining south-east Arabian Sea, to be gobbled up by the prevailing depression, before intensifying.
More churn in the Bay
Fresh convection is bubbling to the other side of peninsula with a cyclonic circulation settling over south-east Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman sea. This may concentrate as a low-pressure area by Friday.
It is likely to move west-northwest (eyeing Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coast) and intensify by Saturday. The system is attributed to an incoming remnant of erstwhile typhoon Fengshen that crossed Vietnam coast on Wednesday. A remnant from another depression from Taiwan Sea too is headed in this manner into the Bay.
Low-pressure systems
Numerical predictions of India Meteorological Department (IMD) draw up a scenario where a second low-pressure system forms in the Bay in the rear of Fengshen remnant. The two systems may propel away in separate tracks towards Tamil Nadu and north Andhra Pradesh coast in next seven days, per these projections.
Very heavy rainfall is forecast over Kerala and Mahe and Coastal Karnataka on Friday, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam and Rayalaseema on Monday and Tuesday; isolated very heavy over Andaman and Nicobar Islands for next three days and isolated heavy on Sunday. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan and Goa and Madhya Maharashtra on Friday; and east Gujarat and Saurashtra and Kutch on Saturday and Sunday.
Published on October 23, 2025
