India’s sugar supply tightens ahead of festival demand, all hopes on early supply next season
Tight sugar supply in India due to festival demand, government and mills pin hopes on early crushing next season.
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There may be 9 million tonnes (mt) of sugar available from the current season for sales in domestic market in India during August-November period, which is seen as very tight in terms of supply due to festival demand. As the government and sugar mills are pinning hopes on an early start to the next crushing season from October to augment availability, monsoon rainfall will be the deciding factor in determining whether to import sugar.
In 2024, the government allocation during August-November period was 9.3 mt and the situation remained comfortable this season due to carry forward stock of 8 mt from 2023-24 season. If the closing stock drops to 4.7 mt (to carry forward for 2025-26 season), the government may need mills to produce 3-3.5 mt during first two months of next season, an industry expert said. Mills had produced 2.79 mt of sugar during October-November of 2024-25 season.
The government last week said that the notional closing stock of sugar on June 30 was nearly 11.2 mt and allocated 2.2 mt sugar quota for domestic sales during July. Total allocation of sugar quota so far during October 2024-July 2025 reached 22.95 mt, which is 6 per cent lower from 24.5 mt in the year-ago period. India had record 29 mt sugar consumption in 2024-25 season (October-September).
“The sugar sales were about 0.1 mt less that allocated quota of 2.3 mt in June due to early arrival of monsoon and below normal temperature during summer in many parts of the country. Even in May also, demand was less, compared to last year. Now mills are hoping for a demand pick up in festival season, that starts with Ganapati puja, followed by Dussehra and Diwali,” said a top executive of a sugar mill in Uttar Pradesh.
Industry bodies have informed the government about less demand in June, sources said. But, the final sales data will be available only after July 20, based on the monthly details filed by mills, the sources added.
Published on July 3, 2025
