India’s sugar stock may dip to 46 lakh tonnes in August, below industry projection
India’s previous low closing stock was 39.41 lt in 2017–18. With sugar output projected to rise 18% in 2025–26 to 349.01 lt, ISMA expects supply stability despite tight carry-forward stocks.
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The government has estimated sugar stock at end of August at about 69 lakh tonnes (lt) and allocated 23.5 lt for domestic sales during September. As the Dussehra and Diwali festivals will be celebrated this year slightly earlier than normal, the domestic sales quota for September may be exhausted completely, leaving the closing stock of the current season at around 46 lt, which is lower than the industry estimate.
Recently, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) projected the closing stock to be about 52 lt.
In the notification, allotting mill-wise sugar quota for domestic sales during September, the food ministry has said that the notional stock on August 31 is likely to be 68.94 lt. After deducting the September sales quota and factoring in an estimated production in the month (from Tamil Nadu and Karnataka), the stock will end up at 46.44 lt, said a senior sugar industry official.
The government had allocated 47.5 lt of sugar for domestic sales during October-November of 2024. Experts said that if the allocation is maintained at the same level, the closing stock will be lower, and the government will have to rely on fresh sugar produced next season, starting from October 1.
During October and November 2024, sugar mills had produced 27.9 lt and industry is expecting higher production this time due to better sugarcane yield and increased juice recovery.
The previous low of closing stock was 39.41 lt in the 2017-18 season (October-September), and after that, it never dipped below 50 lt in any season.
The closing stock of sugar on September 30, 2024, was 79 lt, which helped India manage the supply situation as the net production is estimated to drop to 261 lt in the 2024-25 season against domestic consumption of 275.5 lt (based on the monthly quota).
Releasing the first sugar production estimate for the 2025-26 season, ISMA on July 31 had said that the domestic availability was adequate to meet festival demand when fresh production would start arriving from November, along with carry-forward stock of 52 lt.
ISMA has projected the country’s gross sugar output to be 349.01 lt in the 2025-26 season, up by 18 per cent from 295.07 lt in the 2024-25 season.
Published on August 30, 2025
