India’s Retail Inflation September 2025 Live: Inflation likely dipped below 2% in September due to GST cuts and easing vegetable prices

ndia’s Retail Inflation 2025, Retail Inflation outlook for September 2025 updates: GST rate cut, combined with a downward trend in vegetable prices, is expected to bring down retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) below 2 per cent for September. Statistics Ministry will make the inflation data public on Monday.

Led by fading base effects and a moderation in the pace of contraction in food prices, CPI inflation rose to 2.1 per cent in August as against 1.6 per cent of July, whereas core CPI inflation rose to 4.3 per cent from 4.2 per cent during the same period.

GST rate cut was made effective from September 22. Some of its impact can be seen on prices of durable goods and some services although full impact is likely to be seen in October and November. Meanwhile, vegetable prices, along with that of cereals, saw a decline in September. 

Crisil Intelligence reported lower prices of vegetables and pulses in September. Prices of tomatoes eased on the back of higher supplies, while those of potatoes and onions softened as stored stocks entered the market. Pulses, too, saw price corrections, supported by an increase in imports of Bengal gram, yellow pea and black gram.

A report by Bank of Baroda estimated retail inflation to be at 1.2 per cent. Headline CPI is largely experiencing a food-driven downward spiral. This is supported by robust arrival statistics of TOP (Tomato, Onion and Potato) vegetables.