India’s red chilli output likely to shrink by 20% on dip in area

A lower acreage coupled with excess rain and pest attacks is set to shrink India’s red chilli crop for the 2025-26 season as farmers have shifted to other crops such as maize, cotton and pulses. However, the higher carry-forward stocks will augment the supplies, keeping the prices under check, even as the export demand remains muted.

“Crop has been sown on about 70 per cent of the area this year. It is too early to quantify the crop size as sowing has been staggered across all three major producing States in the South. A clearer picture of the crop size will emerge only in the first week of January,” said Velagapudi Sambasiva Rao, President, Chilli Exporters Association in Guntur.

However, Rao said the huge carry-forward stocks will keep the prices under check. The estimated carry forward stocks in Andhra Pradesh are around 55 lakh bags, Telangana around 36 lakh bags and Karnataka around 45 lakh bags, Rao said, adding that the export demand from China, the largest buyer, remains muted due to a higher local crop.

Arrivals begin in Karnataka

Sandeep Voddepalli, General Manager at BigHaat Agro Pvt Ltd, said overall area is down by 25-30 per cent this year compared with the last year and the crop is likely to be down by around 20 per cent. Overall, the chilli crop is estimated to be lower at 11.4 lakh tonnes (lt) during 2025-26 compared with 14.1 lt in the previous year, he said.

The crop is largely in the flowering and fruitsetting stage in various parts of Andhra and Telangana, while arrivals have slowly started in Karnataka. Though there have been some minor pest attacks in various locations, there is unlikely to be any major impact on the crop, Voddepalli said. He estimates the chilly cold stocks at 157 lakh bags, about 14 per cent higher than last year’s 138 lakh bags during November. Farmers and stockists are holding their stocks anticipating better prices in the upcoming months, Voddepalli added.

Byadgi variety

Basavaraj Hampali of Hampali Traders in Hubbali said the cropped area is less around 25-30 per cent in Karnataka. The heavy rain during the monsoon period, especially during August, impacted the crop. The crop losses due to excess rains can be around 10-15 per cent.

Arrivals of the Byadgi varieties have started slowly and expected to pick up in the coming months.

Prices for the Byadgi type of chillies are ruling in the range of ₹40,000-45,000 per quintal, up from ₹30,000-35,000 levels a year ago, Hampali said. He estimated stocks of Byadgi chillies in Karnataka at around 30-35 lakh bags, down from 45-50 lakh bags a year ago. However, the carry-forward stocks are higher than the normal of 15-25 lakh bags. –

Published on December 12, 2025