India’s record October crude oil imports from US may sustain in November 2025
Panama-flagged oil tanker Nave Neutrino, chartered by U.S. company Chevron, waits to load heavy crude for export near the port of Bajo Grande in Maracaibo, Venezuela, September 16, 2025. REUTERS/Isaac Urrutia
India’s November 2025 crude oil imports from the US, which dislodged the UAE as New Delhi’s fourth largest crude oil supplier in September, are expected to remain at last month’s level as the world’s third largest energy consumer balances market economics and trade considerations.
According to the global real time data and analytics provider Kpler, India imported a record 5,68,000 barrels per day (b/d) from the US in September 2025 — the highest since March 2021.
The high trajectory aided Washington in dislodging the UAE as India’s fourth largest crude oil supplier, a spot it lost to the Arab nation six months ago.
“Imports from the US reached 5,68,000 b/d in October (2025) and are expected to average 450,000–500,000 b/d in November, compared with a year-to-date average of around 3,00,000 b/d,” Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline.
However, he pointed out that these cargos were likely agreed upon before the recent US sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, given the 45–55 day voyage time, suggesting the spike was not sanctions-driven but rather reflects India’s ongoing diversification and energy security efforts, he added.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data also shows rising US crude cargoes to India. For instance, during January-August 2025, Washington’s cumulative crude oil exports stood at 2.20 million barrels per day (mb/d), which is a record high, barring 2021 (3.43 mb/d).
Market economics
Ritolia emphasised that the increase was economics-led, supported by a strong arbitrage window, a wider Brent–WTI spread, and weak Chinese demand that made WTI Midland competitive on a delivered basis.
“That said, further upside is limited, as the rise is arbitrage-led, not structural, constrained by longer voyage times, higher freight costs, and WTI’s lighter, naphtha-rich yield. Still, the growing US share in India’s crude basket underscores deepening US–India energy ties and aligns with India’s strategy to balance supply security, economics, and geopolitics,” Ritolia explained.
Looking ahead, US crude inflows are expected to settle around 250,000–350,000 b/d in the coming months (December 2025/January 2026) depending on how the arbitrage opportunity evolves and refiners adjust their buying strategies, he anticipated.
The rising US share in India’s crude basket carries both strategic value and diversification strategies. Higher energy imports from Washington will help narrow India’s trade deficit with the latter and fit into New Delhi’s broader strategy of diversifying energy supply chains. The increase in crude trade also reinforces energy cooperation between India and the US.
Besides, it also shows India’s diversification strategy where it balances light sweet crude oil cargoes from the US as well as Africa (Nigeria, etc).
Published on November 6, 2025
