India’s cotton trade body sees crop output a tad higher

India’s trade body, Cotton Association of India (CAI), has raised the crop estimate for the 2025-26 season (October-September) by 2.5 per cent or 7.5 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) to 317 lakh bales on higher than estimated production in Maharashtra and Telangana. CAI has projected a year-end surplus of 122.59 lakh bales for the 2025-26 season, up 56 per cent year-on-year on record imports of 50 lakh bales during the year.

Based on the feedback from various state bodies, CAI has projected an increase of 3 lakh bales in Maharashtra, 4.5 lakh bales in Telangana, 1 lakh bales in Karnataka and 0.5 lakh bales in Tamil Nadu. Also, the trade body expects a decline of 1 lakh bales in Madhya Pradesh and 0.5 lakh bales in Odisha.

In a statement, CAI President Vinay Kotak said the consumption during the current season 2025-26 ending September is estimated at 305 lakh bales, a tad lower than 314 lakh bales a year ago. Till December end, the consumption was estimated at 76.25 lakh bales. The duty-free import window provided by the Government till December 31 last year has prompted the trade and millers to import 31 lakh bales.

Export estimate cut

CAI has cut the cotton export projections by 3 lakh bales to 15 lakh bales during the 2025-26 season from 18 lakh bales in the previous year. Till December end, about 4.5 lakh bales have been exported.

CAI sees a total supply of 427.59 lakh bales during 2025-26 against 392.59 lakh bales a year ago. Total supply this year comprises an opening stock of 60.59 lakh bales, pressing estimates of 317 lakh bales and imports of 50 lakh bales. Total surplus at the end of the 2025-26 season, ending September, is projected to be 122.59 bales, higher by around 56 per cent over 78.59 lakh bales last season. Closing stocks for the 2025-26 season is projected at 07.59 lakh bales, up 77 per cent over 60.59 lakh bales last season.

Published on January 14, 2026