India’s coffee carry forward stocks for 2025-26 likely to be higher

 India, the seventh largest producer of the coffees, exports over two thirds of its annual output of around 3.6 lakh tonnes
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India’s carry-forward stocks of coffee for the year 2025-26, starting October, are likely to be higher than normal as export volumes have slowed down due to high prices, while a section of growers have held back their produce anticipating higher prices.

Coffee prices have been volatile in the recent months and stakeholders said a section of growers are not in a hurry to sell waiting for prices to move up further. India, the seventh largest producer of the coffees, exports over two thirds of its annual output of around 3.6 lakh tonnes.

“There is an expectation of higher price from some growers, who are not in a hurry to sell. Growers are selling on a need basis,” said Ramesh Rajah, President, Coffee Exporters Association. The growers could be holding at least over 30 per cent of the last year’s crop, he said.

Normally, the carry forward is 5-10 per cent of the crop, but this year it looks like it will be over 30 per cent, Rajah said. India’s coffee production during 2024-25 stood at 3.63 lakh tonnes.

Permits 10% lower

Permits issued by the Coffee Board in the current calendar year till October 14 are lower by around 10 per cent at 3.09 lakh tonnes compared with 3.44 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period.

Rajah said exports will pick up if the growers release coffee in the remaining months of the year.

“Most of growers have sold off most of their coffees. Some of the growers could be holding more coffees as buyers who committed to them backed out recently when the prices started dropping. So they are left with stocks. We are also telling them to clear it off before the next season starts,” said A Arvind Rao, Chairman, Karnataka Planters Association.

Opening stocks for the 2025-26 season are likely to be higher if the groers do not sell their stocks for not getting the right price, he said.

High differentials

Praveen Kolimarla of Agrani Coffee and Commodities said the carryover from the 2024-25 season to the next crop season should be higher than usual. The export permits issued are nearly 23 per cent lower for the robusta cherry variety, which is the mainstay of Indian coffee exports.

“Main reasons for the decline in robusta cherry exports are the high differentials that were quoted compared to other Robusta origins viz., Vietnam, Uganda, Indonesia and Brazil.

So, whereas normal carryover is around 10,000 tonnes, this year we should have about 20,000 tonnes carryover. It is possible that towards the end of the year if robusta cherry prices are reduced by the farmers, we may have some increased demand, but it would be tough to compete with new crop from Vietnam. Therefore, we may still have a significant carry over,” Kolimarla said.

Besides the high premiums that the Indian coffee commands, the base price (terminal market value) is also very high. “This makes the cash price of robusta coffee extremely expensive, although it is still significantly lower than Arabicas. Yet, the roasters and large retailers are slow to pass on the higher prices to the consumers for fear of losing market share. Therefore, even the roasters are delaying purchases until the last minute and then trying to buy whatever is available in the spot market or taking certified stocks where possible,” Kolimarla adds.

Pramod Somiah, a roaster in Kodagu, estimates that growers may be still holding around 25 per cent of the crop.

Published on October 15, 2025