India may become ‘third pillar’ in US-Japan rare earth network: Analysis – Here’s what ‘buys the breathing space’

India is emerging as a potential key player in the global rare-earth supply chain, as the recent Donald Trump–Xi Jinping summit has given the world a one-year reprieve from China’s export controls, opening a strategic window for New Delhi to expand its refining and manufacturing capabilities, according to an analysis.“With strong political will and a growing technological ecosystem, India could soon emerge as the third pillar – alongside the United States and Japan – of a democratic rare-earth network,” The Diplomat analysis noted.India’s rich reserves of rare-earth minerals such as monazite and bastnaesite, found in its beach sand deposits, give it strong raw material potential.

However, the country’s refining and processing capacity has historically lagged due to environmental and regulatory hurdles, something that is now changing, according to Jianli Yang, author of the Diplomat analysis and a research fellow at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

Breathing space after Trump-Xi deal

The Trump-Xi summit in South Korea last month has “bought breathing space,” the publication said, adding that “India now offers a path to breathe freely.”A White House fact sheet confirmed that following the Busan meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, Beijing agreed to delay specific export controls on rare earth materials for one year under a new trade agreement with Washington.

India ramps up domestic capacity

Earlier in June, India announced plans to negotiate with private firms and introduce fiscal incentives for domestic rare-earth magnet manufacturing to reduce dependence on China. Companies like Sona Comstar are already setting up magnet production lines, while Indian Rare Earths Ltd. has been directed to expand refining capabilities. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is helping adapt high-purity separation technology initially developed for satellites, ANI reported.India is also linking these domestic efforts to global partnerships under the Quad framework — with the US, Japan, and Australia — to fast-track joint exploration, co-financing, and technology transfer.Yang wrote that India, as the world’s fifth-largest economy, “brings both scale and credibility” to the rare-earth race, offering a manufacturing base large enough to absorb downstream industries such as magnets, motors, and batteries — something smaller producers like Australia or Brazil cannot match.He noted that while Australia plays a key role in mining and early-stage processing, and Brazil provides valuable diversification in the Western Hemisphere, the US has made progress in producing NdPr metal in California and magnets in Texas — yet none of these alone can counter China’s dominance.“India, however, changes the calculus by linking supply diversification with market demand,” Yang explained, adding that the country has the capacity to consume what it produces, export what it refines, and by working closely with its allies, become a hub for both production and processing.The analysis noted that India’s rare-earth strategy is politically stable, backed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (self-reliant India) agenda that enjoys bipartisan support. The analysis suggested that the United States should see India not merely as a defence or semiconductor partner, but as a “cornerstone of a new rare earth alignment.”It proposed that India and the US establish reciprocal stockpiles of rare-earth materials, with the author noting that “fast-tracking technology sharing on refining and waste treatment will allow India to leapfrog the costly trial-and-error phases that slowed the United States and Australia.”The report further emphasised that rare-earth cooperation should be “embedded into the core agenda” of the Quad — comprising India, Japan, Australia, and the United States, making it as integral as joint naval drills or semiconductor partnerships.Yang added that India’s success in attracting Apple’s assembly lines and chip design centres shows it can deliver when strategic alignment meets policy support. If the US, Japan, Australia, and Brazil “rally behind India’s rise as a credible supplier and processor,” they can help build a truly diversified global rare-earth market, The Diplomat noted.