IEA revises downwards India’s estimates of manufacturing capacity for wafers & polysilicon

Outside of China, complete crystalline silicon PV supply chains exist only in Japan and Malaysia
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KUMAR SS

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised downwards estimates of India’s manufacturing capacity for wafers and polysilicon — two critical stages without which upstream integration is a challenge — which has delayed the efforts of the world’s third biggest RE market to become self-sufficient.

India’s limited wafer manufacturing capacity has capped its efforts to creating a complete crystalline silicon PV supply chain — from polysilicon to modules, excluding auxiliary components such as frames, encapsulation materials and glass.

The agency’s latest update on renewable energy (RE) noted that the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, basic customs duties and domestic-content requirements for government-supported projects were driving expansion.

India awarded PLI allocations for nearly 50 gigawatt (GW) of cell and module capacity, 41 GW of wafer capacity, and 24 GW of polysilicon production in 2023.

Self-sufficient

However, while targeted module capacity was achieved by the end of 2024, cell manufacturing reached only 20 GW and no wafer or polysilicon facilities were commissioned. Delays resulted primarily from technical, financial and competitive challenges, particularly in upstream segments, it pointed out.

“Consequently, India’s manufacturing capacity estimates for 2030 have been revised downwards from the last year’s forecast – from 35 GW to 15 GW for wafers, and from 30 GW to 15 GW for polysilicon,” the IEA said.

In contrast, module manufacturing projections have been raised from 70 GW to 125 GW, driven by faster-than-expected capacity addition, strong domestic demand and rising exports, particularly to the US, it added.

Despite ongoing delays, cell manufacture is also expected to exceed previous forecasts, reaching 60 GW by 2030 (up from 50 GW) as domestic-content requirements are extended to this segment, the agency projected.

Integrated supply chains

The IEA pointed out that outside of China, complete crystalline silicon PV supply chains exist only in Japan (with an estimated 1 GW of throughput capacity) and Malaysia (7 GW) in 2024.

By 2030, this list is expected to also include India (15 GW) and the US (5 GW). In all these cases, limited wafer manufacturing capacity remains the main bottleneck, it added.

Except for Malaysia, domestic supply chains in these countries are anticipated to cover only a fraction of their 2030 deployment needs – approximately 13 per cent in Japan, 14 per cent in the US, and just under 30 per cent in India.

As a result, only China and Malaysia are expected to achieve full self-sufficiency for all the main stages of crystalline silicon PV manufacturing by 2030.

In India, IEA pointed out that rapid expansion of module manufacturing between 2024 and 2030 is expected to create significant overcapacity in this segment.

“However, limited progress in wafer and polysilicon manufacturing is likely to constrain upstream integration, resulting in an overall domestic self-sufficiency rate of approximately 30 per cent by 2030,” it added.

Published on October 10, 2025