H-1B fee increase to slightly dent Indian IT profits; industry boosts offshore delivery: Crisil Intelligence

The US move to impose higher fees on H-1B visas is expected to impact Indian IT majors’ operating margins by just 0.20 per cent, according to Crisil Intelligence, an arm of a domestic rating agency.“The US decision to impose a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas for foreign workers will snip just 10-20 basis points from the operating margins of Indian information technology (IT) services companies next fiscal,” the agency said, PTI reported.IT firms have been reducing reliance on H-1B visas since 2018, when denial rates rose to 24 per cent, and now increasingly rely on offshore delivery, nearshore centres, and local hiring in the US, Crisil noted. Denial rates have eased to 3 per cent in 2024.Indian IT revenue growth to moderateCrisil Intelligence projected that India’s IT services industry will generate $143-145 billion this fiscal year, reflecting a 2-4 per cent growth over the last fiscal year. From the next fiscal year, revenue growth is expected to be marginal or flat.Between October 2023 and September 2024, the four major IT companies—TCS, Infosys, Wipro, and HCL Technologies—accounting for 50 per cent of industry revenue, received 34,507 H-1B visas. Over 35 per cent were for initial employment and 65 per cent for continuing employment, with the share of initial employment expected to decline over the medium term.Visa-related expenses currently account for 0.02-0.05 per cent of total employee cost, with H-1B fees ranging from $2,000 to $5,000 per person. If initial employment shares remain steady, the new fee could raise visa costs to 1 per cent of employee costs, while a lower share would keep costs at 0.3-0.6 per cent.US market share and global presence remain keyTier-1 IT companies generate 96 per cent of their revenue from international markets, with the US alone contributing 53 per cent. Last fiscal year, the sector exported $119 billion in services, underscoring its scale in global outsourcing.India also remains the top remittance recipient with $118.7 billion in FY24, about 23 per cent from the US. Crisil Intelligence noted that the visa fee hike could moderately reduce remittance inflows and the US share, while accelerating offshoring and discouraging students from pursuing higher education in the US.