Gold will likely outperform most traditional financial assets in 2025, says IBJA chief
Gold will likely retain its haven status and will likely outperform most traditional financial assets in 2025, said Prithviraj Kothari, national president of Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
“We see that gold is likely to remain well-supported until the later part of 2025 due to expectations of cuts in US interest rates, stubborn inflation and significant geopolitical risk. Influencing factors such as central bank buying (from accumulators of all types) and structural demand created by ETFs and digital platforms should provide solid near-term support,” he told businessline in an online interview.
While gold prices will fluctuate in the short term (in the case of profit-taking or volatility of the dollar), these will be against the backdrop of fiscal stress and global uncertainty, which favour a confluence of pressures to support the price of gold. “Given the state of the Indian rupee, we see a target price range of ₹1.10–1.15 lakh (per 10 gm) for gold, especially if perceived geopolitical risks spike significantly,” said Kothari, who is also managing director of RiddhiSiddhi Bullion Ltd (RSBL).
Prithviraj Kothari, National President, Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association
Soaring to fresh high
The IBJP national president’s views come on the heels of the precious metal soaring to another new high of over $3,635 an ounce on Monday. US gold futures to near $3,675. In Mumbai, spot gold (999 fineness) was quoted at ₹1,08,040 per 10 gm. On MCX, October futures ruled at ₹1,08,437. Gold has gained over 45 pere cent year-to-date.
Kothari said the increase in the demand for gold as an investment vehicle has, in part, influenced buying habits when it comes to jewellery in India. a structural shift toward financial gold products. Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), sovereign gold bonds and digital gold are all seeing growing inflows, particularly among millennials and urban investors.
Technology-driven platforms and new SIP options are also increasing awareness and access to gold. “In our view, the simultaneous demand for both emotional jewellery and investment-led paper gold exhibits the changing mindset of India’s gold buyers into 2025,” he said.
This has eroded jewellery’s position as a savings instrument. The shift from an instrument in the form of jewellery to an integrated financial product purely for investment has only served to reinforce, along socio-economic lines, jewellery demand for emotional, traditional, and social reasons, said the IBJA national president.
Mixed enthusiasm
Indian buyers are displaying a measured mix of enthusiasm. “Traditional buyers continue to purchase gold jewellery for weddings and festivals. Lightweight jewellery is the flavour of the day with rising prices for gold, creating an opportunity for weight-conscious buyers. Gold coins and bars are especially popular among conservative households and small investors wanting to invest in a tangible asset,” said Kothari.
However, demand for jewellery in India should remain strong this festive and wedding season, as cultural sentiment and tradition will outweigh price sensitivity. “There will be opportunities for growth due to high income growth, rural resurgence, and urban consumption. However, risks to demand remain from high prices, which could lead consumers to shift from heavy jewellery. Global uncertainty and rupee depreciation may dampen demand as well,” he said.
In general, while demand may not be like prior lower-price years with record volumes, festivals and weddings will still produce demand and healthy purchases in urban and semi-urban markets, said Kothari.
Positives for bullion
On the positives for the precious metal, he said these include: US rate cuts, sustained inflation, heavy central bank buying amid rising geopolitical risks, all support gold and silver as haven and wealth-preserving assets. Silver is aided by industrial demand amid tightening supply.
“Negative factors could include stronger-than-expected dollar performance, unexpected rise in real interest rates, and diminishing geopolitical disruptions. Additionally, speculative profit-taking could drive corrections in precious metal prices,” said Kothari.
Gold may consolidate at a higher average price. High silver and platinum prices will likely create mixed demand. For silver, high prices may dampen retail sales of coins and ornaments, but industrial demand is booming as a result of solar energy and demand for EVs and electronics, he said.
For platinum, jewellery demand may meet some resistance, but its importance in green hydrogen and as a catalyst for automotive equipment will continue to support demand.” Price-sensitive consumers in India may trade their silver jewellery for gold-plated or light-weight jewellery, but in terms of silver and platinum’s long-term proposition in the industry, it is unlikely that any future demand may be negatively impacted in other industries by short-term affordability,” said the IBJA president.
Global powerhouse
India can become a global bullion powerhouse with clear regulatory policy, deeper participation in the market and structural changes, including in refining capacity and recycling, said Kothari.
“India is one of the largest gold-consuming nations in the world. The International Bullion Exchange (IIBX) is a game changer as it now enables a compliant, transparent and regulated import process and eventually, international price discovery from India. This is a big vision for the IIBX and the Indian market,” he said.
Consistent policy direction will be vital to draw in leading players in the marketplace. “If this all plays out well, India will be capable of becoming more than just a consumer market; it will become a global bullion trade, refining and pricing hub,” said Kothari, who is also managing director of RiddhiSiddhi Bullion Ltd (RSBL).
Embracing tech
On the bullion industry embracing digital transformation, he said his company, RSBL, is bridging old and new formats by offering digital gold, while maintaining the trust and history of actual bullion.
“Today’s buyers, especially younger ones, have fractional digital gold options—through apps, direct debits, SIPs and UPI-based platforms — while still being able to convert that fractional digital gold into actual coins or jewellery. This hybrid approach preserves the cultural aspect of gold while continuing to make it accessible, economical, convenient and liquid,” he said.
Published on September 9, 2025
