Gold price prediction: Why are gold prices rallying again and what’s the outlook? Top levels investors should watch out for
Gold price prediction: Gold prices are rallying again on the hopes of US Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and China’s gold buying. However, Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan recommends buying the dip, rather than chasing the rally. The analyst shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for:Gold Performance:
- Although expectations of the ongoing US shutdown ending soon boosted risk appetite, spot gold extended its Friday’s rally to surge sharply higher on Monday on the Fed rate cut expectations, wobbly US Dollar and China’s Central Bank adding gold reserves for 12th month in a row in October.
- Gold gained on inflation concerns also as President Donald Trump once again floated the idea of sending Americans rebate checks of at least $2000 a person (excluding high income people) for the tariffs that his administration has collected.
- At the time of writing this article, spot gold was trading with a huge daily gain of 2.34% at $4,096, while
MCX Gold December contract at Rs 123,707 was up 2.07%. - In the week ending November 7, spot gold prices posted a weekly loss of $1 to close at $4001, which amounts to a third straight weekly loss per se.
US Shutdown likely to end:
- On November 9, the US Senate advanced a plan to end the longest-ever US government shutdown that entered the week. A faction of moderate democrats defied their party leaders and voted to support a deal to end the ongoing shutdown.
- As flight disruptions have worsened due heavy snow, the ongoing shutdown may intensify the stress on the US air-traffic system ahead of the busy Thanksgiving travel period as controllers may have to continue to work without pay checks.
Fedspeak:
- Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President Musalem expects the US economy to bounce back strongly early next year due to rate cuts, fiscal support, deregulation and the government shutdown ending. He urged the Fed officials to be cautious on additional rate cuts as he thinks that the current Fed policy is close to the level where it would not put any downward pressure on inflation.
- On the contrary, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly warned against keeping interest rates too high for too long due to softening labour market and moderating wage growth.
US Dollar Index and yields:
- At the time of writing this article, the US Dollar Index at 99.72 was up around 0.15% for the day. Day’s low has been 99.45.
- Ten-year US yields at 4.11% were up by around 1.50 bps, while 2-year yields at 3.59% were up by around 3 bps.
US Data roundup:
- US employment report has not been published in November, which makes it the second month without a national employment report.
- Bloomberg estimates that depending on the US government reopening date, September employment report may be published on November 19/November 26. Even then the report may not offer true picture due to uncertainty over Federal government employment figures. Other reports will also be delayed.
- October CPI report may not be released though.
- Data released in the week ending November 7 were largely mixed as US ISM manufacturing trailed the forecast and contracted for the seventh straight month in October, while ISM services at 52.40 beat the forecast of 50.80 to rise at the fastest pace since February.
- University of Michigan Consumer sentiment fell from 53.60 in October to 50.30 in November, near record-low and even lower than 2008 global financial crisis and Covid levels.
- It is to be noted that ADP data released last week showed that US companies added 42K jobs in October, which signalled a moderate stabilization in the US job market. Challenger job cuts report showed almost 950,000 US job cuts this year through September, the highest year-to-date total since 2020.
Gold ETFs and COMEX inventory:
- Total known global gold ETF holdings rose for two straight days through November 7 to 97.24 MOz, though were down for the third consecutive weeks. Nonetheless, holdings are up 17.36% this year and are hovering around 3-year high level.
- China’s domestic gold ETF holdings rose by 79.015 tons in January to September period, which is a steep rise compared to the 29.927 tons-gain during the same period last year.
- COMEX gold eligible inventory at 17.94Moz is around the lowest level since April.
China’s Central Bank buys gold for the 12th month in a row:
- China’s official gold reserves stood at 74.09 MOz at the end of October, up from 74.06 MOz a month earlier, which means that PBoC bought nearly one ton of gold in October.
- Uzbekistan’s gold reserves reached $47.85 billion October, a record high for the fourth straight month.
China’s gold consumption dips:
- According to a statement from the China Gold Association, the nation’s gold consumption dropped 7.95% y-o-y to 682.73 tons in the January-September period.
Gold Price Outlook:
- A possible end to the US government shutdown has turned investors’ attention back to the Fed rate expectations in October as the upcoming US data may show deteriorating economy.
- Gold is benefiting due to China extending its buying spree and inflation concerns, too.
- However, steady US yields and Dollar may limit the gains barring
- In the very short-term, gold is expected to test the strong resistance around $4160, a successful breach of which would open the way to test the resistance in $4190-$4200 zone.
- Dip buying is preferred over chasing the rally.
- Support is at $4075/$4025/$3990.
Silver: Sharply up
- MCX Silver December contract surged to 153,650, up 4% for the day.
- The metal may test the resistance around Rs 158,500 as it has taken out the strong resistance at $49.30 (Rs 150,000), which will act as a support now.
- Next support comes in at $48.50 (Rs 148,000).
- Dip buying is preferred over chasing the current rally.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
