Global wheat market poised to continue in the grips of bears
The average monthly price for August was $5.298, 4.5 per cent lower than the average monthly price for July and the lowest monthly average since September 2024
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Global wheat prices are poised to rule bearish, with forecasts pegging the production at a record high of over 815 million tonnes (mt), with estimates of a higher crop in the US, Australia, European Union, Canada, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, analysts say.
This comes at a time when Indian growers are set to plant the main rabi cereal, wheat, from this month. Money managers, too, are bearish, as market participants have been holding net short positions throughout 2024 and 2025 in the year-to-date.
Price forecast
Research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said: “We are making a downward revision to our wheat price forecast for 2025 from $5.68/bushel to $5.46, driven by improved expectations for harvests in the largest producing markets. ICE-listed soft-red winter second-month futures closed the latest session on September 22 at $5.295, equivalent to an 11.9 per cent year-on-year decrease and 5 per cent lower than the first closing price of 2025.”
The average monthly price for August was $5.298, 4.5 per cent lower than the average monthly price for July and the lowest monthly average since September 2024, it said
Smaller Argentine crop
The USDA said global wheat production in 2025-26 is forecast up at a record 816.2 mt. Australia’s production has been raised with larger yield and area harvested.
“The European Union (EU) (production) is raised to a 10-year high, partly driven by updated government statistics. Larger yields are forecast for Germany, Romania, and Bulgaria. Russia is forecast to have a larger production of both winter and spring wheat,” said the USDA.
Yields in Canada, Kazakhstan and Ukraine are forecast to be higher this season, while Argentina may have a smaller crop.
Money managers short
BMI said the latest reading from September 16 pointed to a net short position of 85,825, slightly lower than the 2025 average of 87,591. “However, a reading that indicates continued expectations for muted prices. On this, we highlight that the continued net short market positioning increases the risk of short covering and short-term upward price movements,” it said.
The International Grains Council (IGC) said total grains production is forecast to rise by 87 mt in the 2025-26 season (July-June), to record high of 2,412 mt, with increases for all crops, barring rye.
“Uptake is also predicted to climb to a fresh record, up by 50 mt to 2,395 mt, including gains for food, feed and industrial uses. World stocks of grains are projected to expand by 17 mt to 606 mt. Trade in grains is expected to reach 438 mt, up by 15 mt year-on-year and potentially the second highest on record,” it said.
Andrey Sizov of SovEcon, a firm that does research on Black Sea agricultural markets, said December wheat futures dropped to new contract lows on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Matif, the French financial exchange which is now part of Euronext.
On the Matif, the futures rebounded “a few ticks above €188 with record volume of 86,000. “Funds sold Matif last week; Euronext net short up to 290,000 from 272,000,” he said.
Main catalysts
BMI said supply-side factors are the main catalysts for the downward pressure on prices which we have witnessed over recent months, with market sentiment driven by improved harvest outlooks in various countries.
It said it forecast production to increase to over 815 mt, but consumption may be 810 mt only. “This will result in a continued market surplus, which explains subdued prices compared to levels seen during periods of tighter market conditions,” said the research agency.
The USDA said global wheat imports are forecast up at 210.7 mt, driven by small increases across several countries. “Overall, abundant global exportable supplies are expected to contribute to a lower-priced environment in which demand in key importing countries will likely expand. Notably, large supplies for Australia may lead to larger imports for nearby Indonesia and several other East Asian countries,” it said.
Published on October 3, 2025
