Global goods trade slows as tariff frontrunning ends, WTO says
The WTO’s goods barometer dropped to 101.8 in September from 102.2 for June; the baseline of 100 indicates growth over the next quarter that’s in line with medium-term trends
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SIVARAM V
Global merchandise trade slowed last quarter as the boost seen earlier this year from front-loading of orders ahead of US tariffs faded, the World Trade Organisation said.
The WTO’s goods barometer dropped to 101.8 in September from 102.2 for June, the Geneva-based organisation said on Friday. The baseline of 100 indicates growth over the next quarter that’s in line with medium-term trends.
The data for air freight and container shipping “continue to signal expansion,” even as they weakened from June, “indicating a cooling-off in the transportation of goods worldwide,” the report said. The barometer’s automotive and electronics indexes stabilised and agriculture stayed in contraction, while new export orders showed improvement.
“On balance, the indices show signs of moderation in global trade growth,” the WTO said.
US President Donald Trump’s tariffs of 10 per cent or higher on imports from most major trading partners disrupted international commerce through much of the year, spurring many American importers to front-load orders to avoid paying the import taxes, as well as shifting demand away from markets where the duties are the highest.
US goods imports from China, for instance, sank 22 per cent through August this year, but year-to-date shipments from markets including Vietnam, India, Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan all gained more than 20 per cent, according to data released in Washington this month.
According to the WTO’s most recent forecast, made on October 7, world trade volume growth this year is expected to be 2.4 per cent, slower than the 2.8 per cent pace posted in 2024. The outlook for next year anticipates a sharp slowdown, to 0.5 per cent growth, the organisation said.
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Published on November 29, 2025
