Excess rain, Cyclone Montha, shrinks India’s cotton output by 2% to 305 lakh bales of 170 kg each, says trade

Despite the crop loss, the overall supplies are expected to be higher due to an expected increase in imports
| Photo Credit:
AMIT DAVE

Reduced acreages, excess rains and cyclone Montha have impacted India’s cotton output for 2025-26, which is seen down two per cent at 305 lakh bales of 170 kg each over last year’s 312 lakh bales, according to the trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI).

The imports of the fibre crop, which are currently duty-free till the year-end, will be at a record 45 lakh bales as mills have contracted a large quantity for the 2025-26 season, taking advantage of the duty structure.

Atul S. Ganatra, President, CAI, said the trade body has estimated a 2 per cent decline in crop size for the year 2025-26 starting October, based on the inputs received from various state associations. The acreages were down by around 2.6 per cent this year at 110 lakh ha this kharif.

“Despite reduced area, we were expecting a higher crop of around 330-340 lakh bales this year. But, the excess rains last month and also due to the Cyclone Montha, there has been some crop damage and the overall output is slightly lower than last year,” Ganatra said.

In the North, the crop this year has improved by around 2 lakh bales to around 30.5 lakh bales. While in Gujarat and Maharashtra, it has reduced to some extent and in MP, it is the same as last year. In Karnataka, the crop is seen better by around 1 lakh bales, Andhra by 4 lakh bales, as sowing was more this year. The only state in South, which has seen a decline in crop, is Telangana, where production is seen coming down to 43 lakh bales from 48.75 lakh bales last year, Ganatra said.

Import lift

However, despite the crop loss, the overall supplies are expected to be higher due to an expected increase in imports. “Imports during the Oct-December quarter this year will be around 30 lakh bales, as compared to 10 lakh bales in the same period last year. There is a threefold increase in imports as there is no duty till this year-end. Last year, with 11 per cent duty in place, imports for the whole year stood at 41 lakh bales. This year, we are estimating that imports will be over 45 lakh bales.” Ganatra said.

Total cotton supply till the end of the cotton season 2025-26 (up to 30th September 2026) is estimated at 410.59 lakh bales as against the corresponding last year’s 392.59 lakh bales. Total supply includes opening stocks of 60.69 lakh bales, pressing estimates of 305.00 lakh bales and imports of 45 lakh bales. Domestic consumption is estimated at 300 lakh bales and exports at 17 lakh bales, lower by around 1 lakh bales over last year’s 18 lakh bales.

Meanwhile, the market arrivals have picked up across the country. “Today the arrivals were around 1.3 lakh bales and in another week’s time, we expect the arrivals to cross 1.5 lakh bales,” Ganatra said, adding that prices of raw cotton were hovering in the range of ₹6,000-7,500 per quintal, below the minimum support price levels of ₹8,100.

Published on November 11, 2025