Excess moisture stress weighs on India’s 2025-26 coffee crop
Stray instances of Arabica cherries ripening have begun to appear in a few areas.
| Photo Credit:
AMANDA PEROBELLI
The extended monsoon spell, along with the recent heavy rains triggered by successive low-pressure systems, is seen hurting the prospects of India’s coffee crop for the 2025-26 season beginning October. The retreating monsoon has caused excess moisture stress, which is likely to shrink the crop as growers battle issues such as fruit rot and black rot diseases.
The South-West monsoon has delivered an 8 per cent surplus for the country as a whole this year, and the continuing rains, that are likely to persist until the first week of November, are adding to excess moisture stress in several key coffee regions of the country.
“Due to the excess moisture stress and the forecast of rains till early November, it remains to be seen how badly the Arabicas will be affected,” said Ajoy Thipaiah, President of United Planters Association of Southern India (UPASI).
Stray instances of Arabica cherries ripening have begun to appear in a few areas. Growers said a few days of bright sunlight are essential for ripening to progress uniformly. “If the rains continue after the fruits get ripened, there will be a higher chance of berries dropping, leading to higher crop loss,” Thipaiah said.
“Though the blossom in Robusta in Kodagu was very good and widespread, the fruit set has not really been up to the expectation. The Coffee Board estimated 4 lakh ton plus output. I don’t think we will reach that. The next two weeks are very crucial and hopefully the rains will subside and give us a breather,” Thipaiah said.
Key coffee growing regions in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu continue to receive rains from climatic events such as withdrawing monsoon and low pressures. As per India Meterological Department (IMD) data, the cumulative rainfall for the four month monsoon period from June 1-September 30 this year was 28 per cent above normal in Chikkamagalur district, while the precipitation was 40 per cent deficit in Hassan, 13 per cent in Kodagu and 36 per cent in Wayanad for the period.
However, during the ongoing month of October, Chikkamagalur has witnessed a 104 per cent surplus and Hassan 156 per cent above normal rains over the past three weeks. Kodagu and Wayanad districts have witnessed 9 and 16 per cent surplus rains during the same period.
“Despite very good blossom showers and starting of monsoon from May, the continuous rainfall has dampened our crop. Due to excess rains we are seeing some amount of rotting of the berries and the crop looks less than last year for sure. The Coffee Board had given a higher estimate. We doubt we’ll be able to increase our crop this year,” said A Aravind Rao, chairman, Karnataka Planters Association (KPA).
Based on the feedback from the growers, Rao said the crop size is likely to be at least 10 per cent less than last year’s output.
In its post blossom or initial estimates, the Coffee Board has projected an output of 4.03 lakh tonne for 2025-26, an increase of 11 per cent over last year’s final estimate of 3.63 lakh tonne.
Published on October 24, 2025
