Deep depression hovers over Bay, awaits cyclone status
The EC-AIFS model shows a fresh low-pressure area forming over south-east Bay of Bengal by the weekend (Saturday, November 1), but it may likely be pushed away to the West Bengal coast.
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Saturday’s depression over south-east Bay of Bengal moved nearly west-northwest and intensified into a deep depression over the same region, the penultimate stage before being named as a tropical cyclone.
The deep depression was located this (Sunday) morning about 610 km west of Port Blair; 790 km east-southeast of Chennai; 850 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam; 840 km south-east of Kakinada; and 950 km south-southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha), an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said.
No change in outlook
It may move west-northwest and intensify further into a cyclone (to be named as Montha in Thai language) over Bay waters slightly away from north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts by tomorrow (Monday) morning.
Thereafter, it is likely to move north-west and later north-northwest, and intensify into a severe cyclone storm by Tuesday morning. Continuing to move further north-northwest, it may cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam around Kakinada during Tuesday evening/night as a severe cyclone with maximum sustained wind speeds of 90-100 km/hr gusting to 110 km/hr, the IMD said.
Rainfall outlook
Meanwhile, on Sunday morning, the other depression over east-central Arabian Sea lay centred about 700 km west-southwest of Mumbai; 760 km west of Panjim; 880 km north-west of Aminidivi; and about 960 km west-northwest of Mangaluru. It is likely to move nearly westwards and away from West Coast till Monday.
For South Peninsula, this week may likely see below normal rainfall since brewing cyclone may direct available moisture away to north peninsula, West, Central and East India, where above-normal rainfall is forecast. Both Climate Forecast System of the US and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts concur with this outlook. North-east monsoon may get back to normal phase over South Peninsula from November 3.
Published on October 26, 2025
