Monsoon may enter most parts of North-West India next week
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees heavy maximum rainfall (in purple) along west coast for next two days as fresh momentum builds in the Bay of Bengal ahead of formation of a circulation/low-pressure area next week.
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The south-west monsoon is likely to advance over remaining parts of Central and East India and parts of North-West India during this week (June 12-18) and over most parts of North-West India during the next week (June 19-25), India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said.
Fresh Bay circulation
The national forecaster also confirmed a watch for a cyclonic circulation/low-pressure area to form over north and adjoining central Bay of Bengal during the first half of next week (June 19-25), as also an east-west trough, precursor to the all-important monsoon trough over North India, that officially drives the monsoon over East, Central and North-West India.
Strong westerly to south-westerly winds will continue to prevail along West Coast, leading to fairly widespread to widespread rainfall likely over East and North-East India and Central and adjoining North-West India during many days of the week. Isolated very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is also likely over Gujarat, Konkan and Goa during some days of the week.
Rain belt to shift
Rainfall may be above normal most parts of country during the week (June 19-25) except South where it would be below normal. Isolated heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are likely over Uttarakhand for next seven days; Himachal Pradesh for four days from Sunday; Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and for four days from Friday. Thunder squalls with wind speeds reaching 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 kmph are likely over East Rajasthan and dust storms over West Rajasthan.
Western disturbance
This would be the handiwork of an incoming western disturbance parked over south-west Pakistan and almost dipping down into the Arabian Sea, ensuring moisture feed into the region. This would also help bring down elevated mercury levels hat has sustained over North-West India during the past week after above-normal rainfall washed away top heat normally witnessed in May.
Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions over North-West India and adjoining interior Pakistan help heat up land, which causes air mass to move up into the atmosphere. This creates lower pressure over land compared to adjoining Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal and the ideal pressure/temperature gradient for moisture-laden monsoon winds from the seas to blow into the region.
Monsoon advance
In the short-term, the monsoon may enter over more parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Odisha during next days, and those of Gujarat, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar during subsequent three days. A cyclonic circulation currently anchoring monsoon over coastal Andhra Pradesh has moved to north interior Karnataka and adjoining Telangana and Rayalaseema.
A trough runs from west-central Arabian Sea to south coastal Odisha across the circulation over north interior Karnataka and adjoining Telangana and Rayalaseema. It has managed to sustain the south-easterly monsoon flows from Bay of Bengal for past few days, and may weaken as it heads for Konkan coast. Building circulation/’low’ over Bay will take up the baton next week.
Published on June 13, 2025
