USDA sees India’s 2025-26 coffee output dip 2.4% to 6.05 million bags of 60 kg each on weather hurting yields
The USDA’s local office in Mumbai has projected a 2.4 per cent decline in India’s coffee crop for the 2025–26 season, beginning in October, estimating output at 6.05 million 60-kg bags (3.63 lakh tonnes) due to weather-related yield issues.
For 2024-25, the USDA had projected the India’s coffee output at 6.2 million bags (3.72 lakh tonnes)
Production of arabicas for 2025-26 is projected at 1.35 million bags of 60 kg each (81,000 tonnes) against previous year’s 1.4 million bags (84,000 tonnes). Similarly, the robusta output is projected at 4.7 million bags (2.82 lakh tonnes) for 2025-26 against previous year’s 4.8 million bags (2.88 lakh tonnes).
The USDA Post has forecast a 0.5 per cent dip in harvested area of the Robustas at 4.32 lakh ha, with yields expected to be lower by two per cent at 1,276 kg per ha, due to heavy pre-monsoon rains and high temperatures. The arabica area is also expected to be lower by 0.5 per cent with yields declining by three per cent o 384 kg per ha, as the crop enters its ‘off-year’ of the biennial production cycle, it said.
“A dry spell during January and February, followed by strong winds and excessive pre-monsoon rains in March and May, is expected to negatively impact yields,” the USDA Post said.
“February and March rains are crucial for determining the crop yield. Moisture stress induces flowering in coffee plants, so excessive rain and cool conditions during the dormant growth phase can inhibit flowering.”
Rain deficit
Per the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), major coffee-growing regions in Karnataka and Kerala experienced an average of 84 per cent and 89 per cent deficit rains during the winter season, followed by excess rains during the pre-monsoon season.
Cumulative pre-monsoon rain from March 1 till May 3 was 86 per cent surplus in Chikmagaluru, 59 per cent more in Kodagu and 23 per cent in Hassan districts. In Wayanad district, the cumulative pre-monsoon rain surplus was 48 per cent.
“Excessive rains can dislodge flowers and fruits and affect fruit setting and development, that can lead to a decrease in output and yields. The decline in arabica yields are due to their sensitivity to temperature increases and pest infestation issues. This has led to a shift towards planting robusta, as arabica is susceptible to white stem borer and leaf rust. Both arabica and robusta yields are forecast below the three-year and the five-year average,” the USDA said.
However, growers said the good pre-monsoon rain this year is seen benefitting coffee, which is in the crop setting stage. “By and large the pre-monsoon rainfall pattern has been better than last year which should help the crop,” said Sahadev Balakrishna, Chairman, UPASI Coffee Committee. However, some pockets may have witnessed lower rains and could be affected, he said.
Growers, who had taken up irrigation, will be expecting a good crop. Last year, a drought-like situation during April-May had impacted not only the coffee but also the pepper crop, he said.
BS Jayaram, former President of Karnataka Growers Federation, said after almost many years, the plantation areas have witnessed good pre-monsoon rains this year, which should help the crop. The rains have been widespread across all the growing regions and will help growers carry out activities like manuring. After a good blossom shower, the crop setting has been good. Also, the widespread rains will help keep the white stem borer, the dreaded pest for arabica, under check, he added.
Published on May 3, 2025
