North-east monsoon likely to withdraw in next 48 hours: IMD
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates a stray rain event for northern and adjoining interior Tamil Nadu and South Interior Karnataka from January 22 to 28.
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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said conditions are becoming favourable over next two days for cessation of north-east monsoon rains over South Peninsular India across met subdivisions of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal; Kerala and Mahe; adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam; Rayalaseema; and South Interior Karnataka. The season normally runs from October to December.
Stray rain event
Meanwhile, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suspects parts of South Peninsula may be in for a surprise rain event a week from now coinciding with a visit of a massive western disturbance across North-West India and Central India that may dip into the peninsular south. To the south, a rain event may initiated by January 20 around Nicobar Islands, according to ECMWF. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said isolated rainfall activity is likely over Lakshadweep and Nicobar islands around this time.
An incoming western disturbance is expected to cream the hills of North-West India with heavy snow and rain, and scattered rain for adjoining plains including New Delhi from January 220 28.
| Photo Credit: www.windy.com
Western disturbance
The western disturbance is expected to trigger widespread snow and rainfall along the hills and parts of plains of North-West India. Rains may extend to New Delhi including Republic Day, according to ECMWF outlook. IMD’s numerical weather models tend to agree, indicating heavy precipitation for Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, though less intense over the adjoining plains until January 25, Republic Day eve.
Size and extent
It is already tracking a western disturbance far way to wet-northwest beyond Iran, which may prove to be the big one. A precursor may affect North-West India from Monday, though IMD has not dropped hints of the size and extent of incoming systems. Scattered to fairly widespread rain is forecast over hills and adjoining plains across Punjab, Haryana and Delhi. Isolated to scattered rainfall activity is also likely over West Uttar Pradesh.
Published on January 16, 2026
