SBI projects 7.5% GDP growth! FY26 figures may surpass government estimates after base year revision — Here’s what report says

India’s economic expansion in FY26 may exceed current official projections once the government adopts a revised GDP base year, a report by State Bank of India (SBI) has indicated. At present, the National Statistical Office’s (NSO) first advance estimates place real GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26, marking a rise from 6.5% recorded in FY25. The estimates also project Gross Value Added (GVA) growth at 7.3%, while nominal GDP growth has been pegged at 8%. SBI’s assessment suggests that the growth trajectory could strengthen further following the revision of the base year to 2022-23. According to the report, GDP growth in FY26 could be closer to 7.5%, with scope for an upward revision once the new base year is factored in. “Growth is likely to be higher once the new base is released,” the report stated. The bank noted that the second advance estimates, which will incorporate additional data and revisions, are scheduled for release on February 27, 2026. These estimates are expected to reflect changes arising from the base year revision. Highlighting past trends, the report observed that the gap between GDP growth estimates published by the Reserve Bank of India and the NSO has historically stayed within a narrow range of 20–30 basis points. Against this backdrop, SBI said the NSO’s current estimate of 7.4% growth for FY26 appears reasonable and broadly in line with expectations. The report also pointed to an improvement in income levels, with per capita national income projected to increase by Rs 16,025 annually to Rs 2,47,487 in FY26, reflecting the expected growth momentum. Sector-wise projections show a moderation in agriculture and allied activities, which are estimated to grow by 3.1% in FY26, compared with 4.6% in the previous year. Services are expected to continue driving overall growth. The sector is projected to expand by 9.1% in FY26, significantly higher than the 7.2% growth recorded last year. SBI said growth across all services sub-sectors is expected to outpace last year’s levels. Industrial growth is estimated at 6.0% in FY26, marginally higher than the 5.9% growth seen in FY25, supported by strong manufacturing output growth of 7.0%. Mining, however, is projected to slow sharply, with output expected to decline by 0.7% in FY26, compared with a growth of 2.7% in FY25. The SBI report highlighted that upcoming revisions and the introduction of the new base year could result in further changes to the current growth estimates.