IMD Update: Year-End rains expected in TN, Puducherry & Kerala

Weather models point to an emerging wet spell for coastal parts of Tamil Nadu and southern parts of the state as well as adjoining Kerala into the year-end and into early New Year.
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Global weather agencies along with India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicate southern parts of Tamil Nadu and the coast starting from Puducherry and southwards as well as most of Kerala (except northern parts) may wake up to isolated to scattered showers into the year-end as well as the first week of the New Year.

European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) signals the possibility in its weather charts seconded by short to medium outlook by IMD in its latest outlook. Immediate trigger likely is an easterly wave front-ended by a cyclonic circulation moving towards Sri Lanka in the last few days of the outgoing year. 

Likely easterly wave

These waves as troughs in easterlies with their movement westwards from south Andaman Sea/Sumatra region to Lakshadweep; south-east Arabian Sea; Sri Lanka; and adjoining Cape Comorin area. The wave is a pleasant surprise, coinciding as it does with the normal close (December 31) of the north-east monsoon season.

North-east monsoon

The season has so far (from October 1 to December 29) appears to have served the cause of Telangana and Rayalaseema to the east and Lakshadweep to the west. Telangana received excess rainfall of 45 per cent and Rayalaseema, 34 per cent. Next best are Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam and Coastal Karnataka (16 per cent each). Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal managed a ‘normal’ with three per cent lower than normal.

Deficit in north Karnataka

South Interior Karnataka too managed to save the blushes with five per cent below the average, though followed quite at some distance by Andaman and Nicobar Islands (-19 per cent, considered tipping end of what is considered normal) and a deficit for Kerala and Mahe (-21 per cent) during the season. North Interior Karnataka has been the worst performer at 32 per cent below the normal.

Scattered rainfall

The IMD has suggested that the emerging spell into the year-end and the New Yeast will benefit Kerala and Lakshadweep in the form of isolated to mostly scattered rainfall during next seven days until January 5. More specifically, ECMWF points an area extending along the coast area of Tamil Nadu from Puducherry and southwards to Kaveripattinam; Thanjavur; Karaikudi; Tuticorin; and Nagercoil as likely recipients of rainfall.

To cover Kerala, too

This will also extend to adjoining Kerala from Thiruvananthapuram and northwards to Kollam; Alappuzha; Ernakulam; Thrissur; and Malappuram. In-between areas in both states including hills along Udhagamandalam; Valparai; Coimbatore; Valparai (Tamil Nadu); and Kumily (Kerala) as well as plains of Palakkad (Kerala) and Dindigul; Madurai; Karaikudi; and Kovilpatti may also come under the rain footprint. 

Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services also has dropped broad hints of the wet spell over the South Peninsula until January 8, 2026, followed by a ‘normal’ (climatological) pattern identified for January for the region until the month-end, and extending likely into the early days of February.

Published on December 30, 2025