IMD Update: North-East monsoon may stay weak this week

Passing showers were recorded at a few places over southern parts of Tamil Nadu per satellite pictures available at 5 pm on Friday.
| Photo Credit:
www.meteologix.com/in

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has in an extended range forecast projected the north-east monsoon may remain a in weak phase over South Peninsula this week as the season approaches half-way mark.

The week that follows (November 13-19) may witness easterly to north-easterly winds causing light to moderate scattered to fairly widespread rain with isolated heavy falls over extreme South Peninsula – mainly the southern parts of Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala, the IMD added. 

US model forecast

The US Climate Forecast System is of the view this is despite the fact South China Sea/West Pacific to the east likely remaining active with storms/typhoons thrown in between. The largely dry spell may gradually lift from December 6, and trigger fresh normal to slightly above normal spells over Tamil Nadu; Kerala; and Karnataka. 

Meanwhile, the IMD has predicted the ongoing isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu may continue for a couple of days more, and for three days from tomorrow (Saturday) over adjoining Kerala and Mahe. Most other places in Tamil Nadu met subdivision may witness light to moderate rainfall or thunderstorms. 

Typhoon hits Vietnam

Light to moderate rain or thunderstorms have been forecast also at many/some places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka for today. This is even as erstwhile category-3 typhoon (cyclone) Kalmaegi weakened after blasting its way into Vietnam yesterday evening. Its remnant may plough through Cambodia and Myanmar before stepping out into the Bay of Bengal sooner than later. 

Remnant for Bay?

Short-to-medium numerical predictions from IMD tended to suggest a remnant from Kalmaegi entering the north-east Bay and likely setting up a cyclonic circulation/low-pressure area over central and west Bay in next three to four days. This is likely to benefit south Tamil Nadu and mainly Sri Lanka, in that order. 

Published on November 7, 2025