Copper may be range-bound around $10,000/t for rest of 2025

Copper prices will likely remain range-bound for the rest of 2025, but there could be a floor level around $10,000 a tonne, says analysts. 

Copper is benefiting from supply disruptions and an optimistic outlook for global demand, they say.

Currently, a three-month contract of copper is ruling at $10,806 a tonne, while spot prices are quoted at $10,797. 

Price forecast

“We are slightly raising our 2025 average annual copper price forecast to $9,650/tonne from $9,500, as copper prices continue to benefit from supply disruptions and positive sentiment towards global demand,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.

“While near-term demand indicators remain mixed, supply disruptions will keep a floor under prices around the $10,000/t level,” said Ewa Manthey, Commodity Strategist at ING Think, the financial and economic analysis wing of Dutch financial services multinational firm ING.

“Copper prices have been 4.6 per cent higher on average so far in 2025, ranging from $8,500-$10,300 a tonne. Prices are expected to increase from $9,550 a tonne in 2025 to around $10,100 a tonne in 2027,” said Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist (AOCE). .  

Copper has benefited strongly from the resilience of the US economy, which continues to outperform market expectations despite concerns about job growth, said BMI, adding that it expects another cut in October.

“Easing monetary policy will likely provide a tailwind to economic activity and growth heading into 2026, as will increased foreign investment into the US as a result of trade deals being made in 2025. This will support industrial demand for copper, as well as sentiment, which will boost speculative holdings of the metal,” it said.

Inventories drop 8%

“Easing monetary policy will likely provide a tailwind to economic activity and growth heading into 2026, as will increased foreign investment into the US as a result of trade deals being made in 2025. This will support industrial demand for copper, as well as sentiment, which will boost speculative holdings of the metal,” it said.

The AOCE said global copper inventories dropped by 8.1 per cent during H1 2025, the result of significant drawdowns in Q2 2025. Major exchange inventories (LME, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX) fell by 16 per cent during this time, accounting for much of the global decline. 

“Substantial inter-exchange movements transpired, with LME copper inventories down by 180,000 tonnes since the start of the year, while COMEX inventories have risen by 105,000 tonnes,” it said.

Manthey said copper has been the standout performer in the base metals complex in 2025. Prices surged more than 20 per cent year-to-date despite concerns that trade frictions would undermine global growth. 

Strong rise in demand

“The surge in copper prices comes as the US Federal Reserve has begun its monetary easing cycle. Supply disruptions are stacking up, most recently Freeport’s declaration of force majeure at Indonesia’s giant Grasberg mine, the second-largest in the world,” she said.

BMI said geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty between China and the US will continue to dampen sentiment. “China’s announcement of export controls on rare earths in October, and the resulting US threats to impose 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods, are likely to cap copper prices in the remaining months of 2025 and into 2026,” it said.

The AOCE said global copper demand is projected to rise strongly to meet requirements for clean energy technologies, data centres and electricity infrastructure more broadly. “Copper supply is expected to lag demand as new mines are slow to develop and trade barriers interrupt scrap flows,” it said.

Manthey said to push that rally further, copper will, however, need to see strong demand growth, especially from China, the biggest consumer. “But in the near term, prices are likely to remain range-bound,” she said.

Long-term outlook bullish

BMI and ING Think’s Manthey said the long-term bullish outlook for copper is intact. 

The AOCE said strong, increasingly inelastic copper demand is expected to keep metal inventories low relative to consumption over the outlook period, leaving the market susceptible to supply disruptions (such as further unplanned mine outages) or faster-than-expected surges in demand. 

“As a result, prices are forecast to rise over the outlook period (2025-2029) to an average of $10,100 a tonne in 2027,” said the Australian Chief Economist’s Office.

Published on October 24, 2025