Short-term La Niña likely during Oct-Dec, say global agencies

ENSO-neutral continued in August, with near-to-below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
| Photo Credit:
CPC, NOAA

A short-lived La Niña is likely during October-December this year, the APEC Climate Centre (APCC) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the US have said.

CPC, an arm of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicts above-normal precipitation for the Arctic and nearby northern continents such as India, the Maritime Continent, and the southwest Pacific.

The APCC climate centre’s El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) alert in its outlook for October-March suggests La Niña is likely to develop in the coming months, but it is expected to be short-lived.

According to the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre, ENSO-neutral persisted during August, with near-to-below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

APCC predicts above normal temperatures are largely for the globe except over the central and eastern tropical Pacific and western tropical Indian Ocean from October 2025- March 2026.

CPC predicts below normal precipitation for central Asia, equatorial central Pacific, and the coasts of Africa for October-December 2025. During January- March 2026, above normal precipitation is expected for the Arctic and western North Pacific.

Below normal precipitation is expected for the southern tropical Indian Ocean, the central off-equatorial Pacific, and some parts of East Asia.

Wind anomalies

Low-level wind anomalies were easterly across much of the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over both the western and eastern equatorial Pacific. Convection was stronger over Indonesia and was suppressed near the date line. Together, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicated the continuation of ENSO-neutral, says the CPC report.

The IRI multi-model predictions marginally favour ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2025-26. However, all available models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble support La Niña to emerge and persist through the winter.

Based on this guidance and recent trends across the surface and subsurface equatorial Pacific, NOAA expects La Niña to develop.

According to CPC, the transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is likely in the next couple of months, with a 71 per cent chance of La Niña during October-December 2025. Thereafter, La Niña is favoured but it could weaken with a 54 per cent chance of the weather event continuing in December 2025 – February 2026.

Published on September 15, 2025