Indian exports to US decline in September as tariffs pinch

Between May and September, India’s exports to the US have dropped by almost 37.5%, wiping out more than $3.3 billion in monthly shipment value.
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India’s exports to the US fell by 20.3 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) to $5.5 billion during September 2025. According to Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), it is the sharpest fall in the current calendar year and the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

September was the first full month in which Indian goods faced the 50 per cent tariff.

“The decline began in May 2025, when exports rose 4.8 per cent to $8.8 billion, marking the last month of growth before the duties took hold. Exports then fell 5.7 per cent in June to $8.3 billion; 3.6 per cent in July to $8.0 billion, and a steep 13.8 per cent in August to $6.9 billion, before collapsing again in September,” said Ajay Srivastava, Founder, GTRI.

Between May and September, India’s exports to the US have dropped by almost 37.5 per cent, wiping out more than $3.3 billion in monthly shipment value, he added.

“The data confirm that the US has become India’s most severely affected market since the tariff escalation began, with sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, and chemicals suffering the heaviest losses,” Srivastava said.

Talks on

On the continuation of the stalled trade negotiations, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said that at present, there is a lot of “noise”.

“I think one good thing is that there is engagement. The US Ambassador-designate is in town (Delhi). Our negotiating team is in the US and trying to see if we can have a win-win solution between the two sides, which can address some of these tariff issues,” he added.

So, there is already a discussion going on. Around 45 per cent of India’s exports to the US are outside tariffs. However, there are 55 per cent exports that have high tariffs, he pointed out.

Asked about the resumption of full fledged discussions on the bilateral trade agreement, he said that the US is in shutdown and their manpower strength is down.

“So, this is not the right time to have full-fledged talks. Having said that, there is a movement on both sides where we are trying to see if there is a pathway,” he, however, added.

Published on October 16, 2025