Chana outlook turns bearish on hopes of higher domestic crop, rising imports
As new chana (bengal gram) crop begins arriving in the Karnataka and Maharashtra markets, prices have started trending lower, hovering around or below the minimum support price (MSP) level of ₹5,650 per quintal. Chana or desi chickpea is quoting between ₹5,500 and ₹6,300 a quintal. The minimum support price for chana for the 2024-25 marketing season has been raised from ₹5,440 per quintal last year.
With the arrivals set to increase in the days ahead,prices are likely to be bearish going ahead in the marketing season. The arrival of the domestic crop coupled with the rising imports, and the huge availability of yellow peas, imported over the last calendar year, is seen weighing on the chana prices.
The new chana in markets of Karnataka such as Kalaburgi, Bidar and Yadgir among others are trading in the range of ₹5,500-6,000 levels. In Maharashtra’s Akola and Latur, chana is trading in the range of ₹6,000-6,400 levels, while in markets such as Udgir and Dhudhani, prices are hovering in the range of ₹5,500-5,800 levels. Old chana crop prices are already trending lower inching closer to the ₹5,000 levels across markets in Madhya Pradesh.
Data from Agmarknet show that the weighted average price of chana is currently ₹6,039 a quintal compared with ₹6,060 a year ago. But imports are higher this year. However, there could be some relief for growers. As prices start trending lower, the Agriculture Ministry on Monday approved the purchase of 96,498 tonnes of chana under the price support scheme in Karnataka.
Higher acreage
Pulses acreage in the ongoing rabi 2024-25 season has increased by 2.3 per cent as of January 24 to 142.49 lakh hectares (lh) against 139.29 lh a year ago. Chana acreage is up by 2.8 per cent at 98.55 lh over 95.87 lh a year ago.
The chana imports into the country have increased 93 per cent during the January-November period of calendar 2024 at 2.32 lakh tonnes from 1.19 lakh tonnes a year ago. Bulk of the imports are from Australia, estimated at 1.41 lakh tonnes during January-November, followed by Tanzania at 70,687 tonnes, Ethiopia at 8,837 tonnes, Burma at 5,761 tonnes and other origins at 4,677 tonnes, as per data collated by the India Pulses and Grains Association.
“Prices will trend lower in the near future as we are having a good crop and also imports are on. Also, the huge quantity of imported yellow peas is impacting the chana demand,” said Rahul Chauhan of IGrain India.
Yellow pea is considered a near substitute for chana and the government had opened up the imports in December 2023 to boost the supplies as the chana crop was lower last year. The duty free import of chana is allowed till March 31, 2025.
Conducive climate
“The domestic production of chana may go up this year as the area has gone up and the prevailing climate is also seen conducive for the crop,” Chauhan said.
Of the estimated crop of between 1.62-1.9 million tonnes in Australia, over 1 million tonnes is being exported this year. “Of this estimated 1 million tonnes export from Australia, about 80-85 per cent will be coming to India,” Chauhan said.
Australia’s chana exports to India have increased over 400 times in the first two months of the 2024-25 marketing year that began in October against total imports in the 2023-24 marketing year. Grains Australia data show India imported 3.49 lakh tonnes of chana from Australia in November against a meagre 463 tonnes in November 2023. For the October-November period, Australia has exported 4.27 lakh tonnes against a meagre 1,494 tonnes in the same period a year ago and 82,318 tonnes during the whole of the 2023-24 marketing year.
