2025 may end up as the second warmest year on record
Monthly global surface air temperature anomalies
| Photo Credit:
Copernicus ECMWF
The year 2025 is emerging as one of the hottest years ever recorded, matching 2023 for the second warmest year, according to ECMWF’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) data. November reinforced that reality, ranking as the third-warmest on record and triggering extreme weather from the Arctic to South-East Asia.
The monthly climate update from C3S also reveals that November 2025 was the third-warmest globally, with warmer-than-average temperatures recorded across Northern Canada and the Arctic Ocean. The month was defined by extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones in South-East Asia, resulting in widespread, catastrophic flooding and loss of life.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate, commented: “For November, global temperatures were 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels, and the three-year average for 2023-25 is on track to exceed 1.5°C for the first time. These milestones are not abstract – they reflect the accelerating pace of climate change and the only way to mitigate future rising temperatures is to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
November surge
In November, the average surface air temperature of 14.02°C, which was 0.65°C above the 1991-2020 average for November, according to the ERA5 dataset.
It was just 0.20°C cooler than the warmest November on record, in 2023, and only 0.08°C cooler than the second warmest, in 2024.
November 2025 was 1.54°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average used to define the pre-industrial level, marking the second month, after October 2025, to rise above 1.50°C since April 2025.
The global average temperature anomaly for January-November 2025 was 0.60°C above the 1991-2020 average, or 1.48°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial reference. These anomalies are the same as those recorded for the full year 2023, currently the second-warmest year.
While 2025 may not reach 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, the average global temperature for 2023–2025 is expected to exceed 1.5°C, which would be the first three-year average to do so in the instrumental period, according to the ERA5 dataset.
Autumn heat
The global-average temperature for boreal autumn 2025 (September to November) was the third highest on record, which was 0.67°C above the 1991–2020 average and trailing only the boreal autumns of 2023 and 2024.
Temperatures were largely above average across the world, especially in northern Canada, over the Arctic Ocean and across Antarctica. Varied conditions occurred across South Asia. Notable cold anomalies were recorded in north-eastern Russia.
Europe and other regions
The average temperature over Europe for November 2025 was 5.74°C, which is 1.38°C above the 1991-2020 average for November, placing it as the fifth-warmest November.
The most significant above-average air temperatures for Europe were recorded over Eastern Europe, Russia, the Balkans and Turkiye.
Below-average temperatures were primarily experienced over northern Sweden and Finland, Iceland, and parts of northern Italy and southern Germany.
Outside Europe, temperatures were above average over the Polar Regions, particularly across north-eastern Canada and the Canadian archipelago, the US, the Arctic Ocean and East Antarctica.
A large region with marked negative temperature anomalies occurred over northern Siberia, covering much of north-eastern Russia.
Seasonal highlights
Europe had its fourth-warmest autumn season on record at 1.06°C above the 1991-2020 average.
Autumn temperatures were generally above average across eastern areas, especially Fennoscandia and Russia. Western and central Europe, except the Iberian Peninsula, saw mostly near-average temperatures.
Sea surface temperature
The average sea surface temperature (SST) for November 2025 over 60°S–60°N was 20.42°C, the fourth-highest value on record for the month, 0.29°C below the November 2023 record.
Most of the North Pacific saw much above-average SSTs, with record highs in the west. In contrast, SSTs were near or below the 1991-2020 average in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, indicating a transition from ENSO-neutral to weak La Nina conditions.
The Norwegian Sea saw much-above record-breaking SSTs, as did the Coral Sea, off the eastern coast of Australia, according to the report.
Warming reality
The picture that emerges is clear and hard to ignore. Heat records are breaking, extremes are becoming routine and the planet is pushing deeper into what scientists have warned about for decades. The data leave little room for doubt: without rapid emissions cuts, even hotter years lie ahead.
Published on December 9, 2025
